Saudi attacks in Yemen warning for Tehran, San‘a

Saudi Arabia's assault on rebels in northwest Yemen is a warning to Iran against meddling and to embattled Yemen President Ali Abdullah Saleh to get his house in order, analysts said.

Riyadh has imposed a naval blockade on the Red Sea coast of northern Yemen to stem the flow of weapons and deployed ground troops against the rebels inside Yemen's borders during the past week after the rebels killed a Saudi border guard and occupied two small villages in a relatively minor cross-border incursion.

It marked a sharp change to Saudi Arabia's low-key and non-interventionist foreign policy and was undertaken with deliberation to deal with a local problem that Riyadh felt might take on regional dimensions, analysts said.

Iran, the dominant Shiite power in the Middle East, warned Tuesday neighboring countries not to interfere in Yemen's internal affairs in a clear reference to predominantly Sunni Saudi Arabia. Yemen and the Saudis have accused Iran of sending money and weapons to the rebels to fight government forces. Iran denies the charge. For their part, the Shiite rebels known as Hawthis have denied being backed by any of the regional players.

Yemen has been embroiled in a sporadic, five-year conflict with Shiite rebels in northern Saada province along the border with Saudi Arabia. The Shiites accuse authorities of neglecting their needs and of allying with hard-line Sunni fundamentalists.

Fighting has intensified since August, displacing tens of thousands of people and limited their access to humanitarian aid. Yemen's weak central government, which has little control outside the capital San‘a, is fighting on multiple fronts including the northern rebels and a separatist movement in the south. But the most worrisome is a lingering threat from al-Qaeda militants.

Riyadh “has lived with instability on the border in Yemen for quite a while,” said University of Vermont professor Gregory Gause, a specialist in Gulf security issues. “The Saudis are sending a signal.... My sense is that they have decided that this is part of the Iranian effort to increase their influence in the region,” he said.

Riyadh had quietly assisted Yemen forces in their three-month old “Scorched Earth” campaign against the Shiite Zaidis, according to security experts.

Weak government:

But the launch of F-15 sorties and artillery barrages targeting Hawthi camps in Saada showed Saudi concerns that Saleh's weakening government is leaving a gap for his other challengers, secessionists in the south and a potent local branch of al-Qaeda.

"Yemen is Saudi Arabia's primary security concern," said Chris Boucek of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington think-tank. "The rapidly deteriorating security and stability situation in the country threatens Saudi Arabia first and foremost. The longer the war in Saada goes on, the greater the risks," he said.

The lengthy, porous border between the two countries is a regular headache for Saudi Arabia. It regularly seizes large amounts of drugs, illicit alcohol, and weapons being smuggled into the country.

There is also a huge and easy flow of people across the frontier, mostly seeking work but also, as shown in recent months, by Yemen-based Qaeda operatives plotting attacks in Saudi Arabia.

Saudis have been disappointed in the Saleh's inability to neutralize the Hawthis after five years of conflict. According to the respected security report by Gulf States Newsletter, or GSN, Riyadh has been contributing $1.2 million for a month as well as field intelligence to Operation Scorched Earth. GSN said that on Oct. 19 Saudi artillery and helicopter gunships were used for the first time to strike at Hawthis on the border.

"Our feeling is that they are not hugely powerful," Jon Marks, GSN editorial director, said of the rebels. "They have managed to keep the war going. They more reflect Saleh's weakness." But it is also a part of a bigger picture of "a shift to a new Cold War" between Saudi Arabia and its allies and Iran, he said. Saudi Arabia and some Gulf states fear Iran will use the Hawthis situation to stir up more trouble, Marks said.

"Iran is poised on the southern border of the Arabian Gulf countries after having swallowed Lebanon to the north and settled in the veins of the wounded Iraqi state," wrote Mshari al-Zaydi in Al Sharq al-Awsat, which has close links to the Saudi government. But while Iranian media has regularly shown sympathy for the Hawthis, evidence of direct support from Tehran is very thin, analysts say.

"They maybe give some money. But the Iranians know their limitations," said a Saudi government advisor.