Rivals offer differing advantages in Turkish air-defense deal

Eyeing Turkey's multibillion-dollar program for antimissile air-defense systems, the competing U.S., Russian and Chinese options offer vastly different advantages for the buyer, according to Turkey-based defense analysts.

The U.S. systems can be fully integrated with Turkey's existing weapons, while Russian and Chinese alternatives lack compatibility. For their part, the Russians rely on what they describe as their system’s highly effective hitting ability, while the Chinese offer enticing technology-transfer possibilities.

The U.S.-based Lockheed Martin and Raytheon corporations manufacture the Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC-3) systems. Russia is offering its S-400 system, designed and produced by Almaz-Antey and marketed by Rosoboronexport, and China is selling its HQ-9 systems made by the CPMIEC (China Precision Machinery Export-Import Corporation).

But Turkey's program is not a commercial tender, in which rival companies directly compete with each other for business. Instead, Turkey is holding simultaneous government-to-government talks with the three countries.

In the latest major development, the Pentagon's Defense Security and Cooperation Agency notified Congress on Sept. 9 of a planned foreign military sale to Turkey of 13 Patriot fire units, hundreds of Patriot missiles and related equipment. If all options are exercised, the sale could be worth up to $7.8 billion, it said.

But the initial phase of Turkey's antimissile air defense systems acquisition program is more modest, estimated to cost between $1 billion and $2 billion.

Compatibility a major factor

Under U.S. export rules, any major U.S. arms sale needs to win congressional approval. In cases of sales to NATO allies, such as Turkey, if no objection comes from senators within 15 days, the sale permission is obtained automatically. Once the DSCA formally notifies Congress, such objections are extremely rare.

"It's almost certain that the Pentagon will receive congressional approval. By doing so, the Pentagon will strengthen its hand by guaranteeing in advance that it will sell the systems to Turkey," said one Ankara-based defense analyst familiar with the program. "The PAC-3 has major compatibility advantages over its Russian and Chinese rivals, and a congressional sale guarantee will help the U.S. option."

Turkey's Air Force is almost exclusively based on U.S. technology. Its fighter aircraft are all U.S.-made or U.S.-designed. In addition, an ongoing program envisions Turkey's acquisition of four airborne early-warning and control aircraft and related systems from Boeing. The PAC-3 will be compatible with all of these systems.

Meanwhile, the Russian and Chinese governments are also providing sale guarantees.

In the past, there were cases in which Turkey had opted for U.S. defense systems, but later had difficulty in obtaining congressional approval for a number of reasons. In this latest case, a pre-contract approval by Congress for the PAC-3 removes this potential problem.

"If Turkey chooses the Russian S-400 or the Chinese HQ-9, there will be huge compatibility problems with the existing Turkish systems, which are mostly based on American technology," said a second Ankara-based defense analyst. "Also Russian and Chinese weapons are not compatible with NATO systems, and overcoming the compatibility issues would mean additional and considerable costs."

Russian, Chinese advantages

One potential weakness for the U.S. Patriot system may be that it was initially developed to counter aircraft and later modified against ground-to-ground missiles. The first generation of Patriots mostly failed against Iraq's crude Scud missiles in the 1991 Gulf War. But the Americans say that their PAC-3 is highly effective.

The Russian S-300s and S-400s, for their part, were developed from the start to counter ground-to-ground missiles, and the Russians say their systems have better hit capabilities than those of their rivals.

For the Chinese, their systems are said to be "inspired" by the S-300. Their biggest advantage is their willingness to engage with a vast technology transfer.

"Turkey is very much interested in obtaining technology and know-how from each of its defense deals," said the second analyst. "The U.S. government is known for its reluctance to make technology transfers, and the Chinese will likely pledge a lot in this area. Russia and China would also keep the price down."

Turkey's decision is expected in the coming months.