'October Road' taken by gov't isn't perfect

The government-sponsored peace initiative in October encompassing a wide region from the Caucasus to the Middle East is positive following months of effort but cannot be portrayed as excellent considering the results, according to foreign policy analysts.

“October can be considered positive in terms of foreign policy but it would not be correct to portray it as perfect. There are questions and exclamation marks,” Faruk Loğoğlu, Turkey’s former ambassador to Washington, told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review.

Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu earlier declared October to be the “month of peace” as Ankara's far-reaching diplomatic efforts included the normalization of relations with Armenia and transitions from cooperation to integration with Iraq, Syria and Iran.

“We can say October was a month of peace as we did not see any conflicts,” said Hüseyin Bağcı, an international relations professor at the Middle East Technical University. “It is not easy to get swift results when the process is ongoing on all fronts,” he said.

The Caucasus

Despite the signing of the documents between Turkey and Armenia in Zurich on Oct. 10, the process remains deadlocked, Loğoğlu said.

“Their signing was good but it is not possible to talk about the concept of peace before the whole process is concluded. The problem is still there for the time being,” he said.

The agreements inked with Yerevan must pass the Turkish and Armenian parliaments before they can come into force. The development in Turkish-Armenian ties drew criticism from Azerbaijan, which opposed the signing because there has not yet been a settlement to the Karabakh problem.

“Turkey cannot unilaterally resolve the Karabakh dispute. This is being abused by Azerbaijan,” said Bağcı.

The Middle East

The government has advanced relations with Syria, Iraq and Iran in the region while the ties with Israel moved in the opposite direction, said Loğoğlu.  

Accompanied by many ministers, Davutoğlu traveled to Syria on Oct. 13 and chaired the first ministerial meeting of the high-level strategic cooperation council with his Syrian counterpart, a mechanism similar to the one established with Iraq. Over the weekend, the minister was in northern Iraq where he met with Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani and inaugurated Turkey’s consul in Mosul.

“I welcome Turkey’s relations with Iraq but we don’t know how the central government in Baghdad looks to growing ties between Turkey and the Kurdish administration in the north. I don’t think [Baghdad] applauds it,” said Loğoğlu. “The current picture in Iraq is not good. This is a question mark.”

Turkey has been the protector of the Iraqi Kurds, according to Bağcı, who welcomed the government’s northern Iraq policy. “Turkey is a project manager in the region, not a project designer. The project designer is the United States and Europe,” he said.

EU vs Middle East

Tension in Turkish-Israeli relations already strained by the Gaza War spread to the military domain when the government excluded Tel Aviv last month from a military exercise for political reasons.

“Turkey is criticizing Israel in a constructive way [and is suggesting] that the latter should change its policy but Turkey is not anti-Israel,” said Bağcı.

Ankara’s alliance with Iraq, Iran and Syria have once again sparked fears over the direction of foreign policy and is leading to speculation in Western media that Turkey is drifting away from the Europe Union.

“Turkey’s level of integration with Iraq, Syria and Iran is, on paper, superior to that with the EU, which shows not where Turkey is looking to but where the country is,” said Loğoğlu. “I think Turkey’s cooling ties with Europe and turning its face to Arab and Islamic countries is not a foreign policy preference but a result of Turkey’s domestic policy dynamics,” he said.

Bağcı, however, said Turkey was anchored to the West but had broadened its vision in comparison to past years. "Turkey is like a sheep with its rope tied to a post. The rope was two meters in the past, but today, the sheep is grazing on a wider pasture – although the post is still there, that is, the West," he said.