From the Bosphorus: Straight - An immodest bid for regional nuclear planning

A strong argument can be made that Turkey, Iran and perhaps the rest of the world are all missing the real issue surrounding nuclear energy production. It is not that nuclear energy is too dangerous. It is not that it is unfeasible. It is not even that nuclear research and resources can be diverted to military schemes. Rather, the nuclear issue in our age is that none of these concerns can adequately be addressed in the narrow space of nation-state policymaking.

The issue is underscored by the complex “let’s make a deal” horse-trading witnessed in recent days between international nuclear watchdog Mohammed ElBaradei, Turkey and Iran, which is designed to calm concerns about Iran’s intentions with storage of enriched uranium here in Turkey. One idea floated amid all this commotion is the notion to keep Iran’s enriched uranium on a resort island in the Gulf. This dumb idea, we believe, only further underscores our point: We keep trying to stuff 21st century problems into a 20th century policy box. No wonder problems keep popping back out.

A court rejection of some tenets of Turkey’s one maiden nuclear tender, also reported yesterday, is more evidence for the case we seek to make. The tender is riddled with problems, not least of which is the fact that construction of the power plant was awarded in to Russia’s Atomstoyexport in an auction without any other bidders.

The real problem is one of scale. Designing, developing and managing nuclear power facilities, particularly as part of a global effort to curtail emissions of greenhouse gases, is a daunting task. This is a challenge bigger than virtually any single corporation. It is a complex task larger than the capacity of most nation-states – we would argue ANY nation state.

For this reason, we draw readers’ attention to a recent essay in the magazine Strategy+Business (www.strategy-business.com) entitled “An Immodest Proposal for the Next Big Fuel.” Written by James Ogilvy, dean of the Presidio School of Management in San Francisco, it essentially argues that a U.S.-French-Japanese consortium should facilitate China’s rollout of nuclear power.

If one accepts the controversial premise that nuclear energy is perhaps our only good bet in the face of global climate change, then the next stage of logical thinking is that solutions must be trans-national. France is the world’s leading nuclear power in terms of energy production. It is hardly a secret that France would like to get into Turkey’s nuclear game, hence a bit of softening in anti-Turkish rhetoric in the context of European Union negotiations. Russia has a good deal of expertise. In our region, Turkey, Iran, Georgia and Armenia all have skyrocketing energy demands.

Would a regional rethink of all these energy questions be radical? You bet. But we think it is time for such radical thinking.