Election scenarios in Afghanistan: Will there be a real winner?

Although it has been 52 days since Afghanistan held its presidential election Aug. 20, the official results are still unknown. According to the last declaration from the Independent (!) Election Commission, an official announcement is expected in the following week.

How about what the unofficial results have told us? If the unofficial results are correct, President Hamid Karzai would be reelected with 54 percent of the votes.

Local and international observers have declared there was widespread fraud in the election. After receiving more than 2,000 complaints, the Election Complaints Commission has decided to re-count 10 percent of the votes. We will certainly have two scenarios after the recount process.

In the first scenario – not certain, but most likely – Karzai would receive 50 percent of the votes in the election and be reelected to the presidency. What will happen then? The majority of the Afghan population is not happy with Karzai and his administration. He received only 55 percent of the votes in the 2004 elections even though he had full support from the U.S. administration. Therefore, it does not seem likely that the re-election of Karzai will bring a new agenda to – or change things in – Afghan politics.

It is not expected that Karzai and his administration can change the situation in Afghanistan, which has gotten worse and worse, especially since 2006. Apparently, all of Karzai’s hopes again depend essentially on the U.S. and other Western countries. Therefore, the president is agitated by the delayed announcement of the election results and still feels the need to emphasize very often that a fair election was held, and that he is the winner of this election.

Karzai stated that if he were elected again he, as a Pashtun, could negotiate with the Taliban, whose fighters are mainly composed of Pashtuns. Well, what would happen if both parties were able to negotiate? If we look at the relations of Karzai and Taliban in the past, can we expect that the gathering will be a fruitful one? As the president of Afghanistan, Karzai should have gained the support of the Pashtun population more than the Taliban, but unfortunately he failed during his five-year presidential term.

Therefore, another five years with Karzai, having the same mindset, would be far from what is needed to solve the problems of Afghan society; as a consequence of this, it is inevitable that the Taliban will become stronger in Afghanistan.

In the second possible scenario, Karzai’s votes would fall below 50 percent and he and Dr. Abdullah would compete for the second round of presidential elections as soon as possible. If Karzai wins again as a result of this run-off election, there will not be a new situation that differs from the picture painted above. However, what will happen if Dr. Abdullah wins is a possibility worth further examination.

Before taking this option into consideration, we should seriously consider the potential environment in which the run-off will take place in Afghanistan.

Let us assume that the official results are declared during the next week as the Election Commission stated and that there will be a second round. We will see that the first half of October will be gone. Even if the Election Commission immediately starts working for the second round of elections, the end of November would be the earliest date for the run-off. I believe this is still an optimistic date for the election. How could an election be carried out at the end of November in Afghanistan?

Stanley McChrystal, the commander of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, has submitted an urgent report to the White House in favor of increasing the number of troops. He also warned that if the Obama administration does not send new troops to Afghanistan, there is no chance for the U.S. to win this war, which has been going on for more than eight years. However, the Obama administration is not acting hastily to meet this demand.

One of the reasons is that there is a serious disagreement related to this issue in the U.S. Congress. The Obama administration cannot display its commitment to increasing troops in Afghanistan as the government did in the past. The increase in civilian casualties poses an obstacle for Obama to receive the full support of the American people regarding his Afghanistan policy.

Now, considering these conditions, let us go back to the question we asked above: “What will happen if Dr. Abdullah wins against Hamid Karzai?”

It is difficult to say that Dr. Abdullah, who took part in the former cabinet as a foreign minister, offers different things than Karzai. There is something positive for Dr. Abdullah that he voiced during the election campaign: “The system should be changed.” The system must change, but how? What Dr. Abdullah promises, the discourse of “a more democratic system,” is not something new in Afghan politics.

To sum up, Dr. Abdullah has come to be seen as an alternative rather than as a competitor to Karzai. At least his “system must change” discourse is positive. However, it is not easy to say whether his presidency or Karzai’s re-election would be less damaging to Afghanistan after a run-off that would drag the country into political uncertainty for at least two to three months more.

* Salih Doğan is a researcher at the Ankara-based Center for Security Studies, or USAK. He can be reached at sdogan@usak.org.tr.