Cyprus revisited

Amid all the speculation on the Kurdish and Armenian initiatives of the government one would almost forget that there is another highly sensitive and important issue on Turkey’s autumn agenda: Cyprus. This month the last phase in the negotiations on the island between the two leaders has started. Because there have been so many meetings before, the talks between Mehmet Ali Talat and Dimitris Christofias don’t make it to the headlines anymore. I guess most journalists got tired of reporting on the same old issues. I am afraid many observers do not believe that this time around the talks will produce an agreement that could finally bring this longest unsolved conflict in Europe to an end.

To be honest, three years ago I gave up myself. I visited the island more than 10 times between 2002 and 2006. I talked to all the main players and read the reports. I had hot debates with Greek Cypriots on the island and in the European Parliament. After five years of trying to be helpful in finding solutions, I lost hope that it would ever work. I heard the same arguments over and over again. I could feel the deep distrust on both sides. I witnessed the growing self-confidence among the Greek Cypriots after they joined the European Union and the sense of despair setting in among the Turkish Cypriots as time went by.

When you read this column I will be back on Cyprus again for a meeting with Greeks and Turks who have worked hard and successfully over the years to improve the relations between their two countries.

There are three reasons for me to re-engage. One is the old but still strong conviction that a solution to the Cyprus problem is key in improving relations between Turkey and the EU. When this obstacle is be removed, it will make life much more difficult for the opponents of Turkish accession. Everybody in Europe knows that the Cyprus problem is being instrumentalized by countries like France and Austria. They use Cyprus as a stick to hit at Turkey. As long as there is no solution, they will keep on doing that. Second is the guarded optimism I gathered from reading a recent study by the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, “A People’s Peace in Cyprus.” Based on an impressive number of opinion polls among both Greek and Turkish Cypriots, the authors come to the conclusion that an agreement will be a hard sell to both communities. But it can be done. Looking at the opinions on all the controversial issues being negotiated they argue convincingly that a bicommunal consensus could be reached on all dossiers.

Finally, there is this stubborn unwillingness to leave Cyprus to the hard liners on either side. Talat and Christofias need all the support, encouragement and pressure they can get. If these two guys can’t come to an agreement, who can? They are old comrades that have known each other for a very long time. Talat’s political future depends on a positive outcome, Christofias’ place in history can only be secured with a deal that would end the conflict. Both know that the disadvantages for their communities of a failure to compromise far outweigh the short-term benefits of “being tough” and keeping the island divided. The Greek Cypriots would not get what they are looking for: security and compensation for lost property. The Turkish Cypriots would continue to suffer in splendid isolation.

I really hope that all Greeks, Turks and internationals who want a deal on the island can be convinced to overcome their skepticism one more time and engage with the ongoing talks. I will keep you informed.