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Thursday, July 29 2010 19:31 GMT+2
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Alarm spreads over Europe's massive deficits

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PAUL HARRINGTON
Traders work at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in Frankfurt, Germany in this Feb. 5, 2010 photo. Investors are concerned that efforts by Greece, Portugal and Spain to reduce their deficits will hurt the recovery of their economies. Bloomberg photo

Traders work at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in Frankfurt, Germany in this Feb. 5, 2010 photo. Investors are concerned that efforts by Greece, Portugal and Spain to reduce their deficits will hurt the recovery of their economies. Bloomberg photo

Swelling public deficits in Portugal, Spain and Greece have plunged the eurozone into the biggest crisis in its 11-years of history, presaging years of belt-tightening, analysts warn.

It is a vicious financial circle; the more fears over deficits and debts grow, the harder it becomes for the troubled eurozone nations to borrow money to stay afloat.

With 16 EU nations now using the euro the problems are resonating throughout bloc. The euro fell below $1.36 on Friday, its lowest level in over eight months.

One risk is the "free loader" effect, said Patrick Artus, a leading economist at Natixis.

That happens when other countries are forced to come to the aid of an ailing eurozone member "to avoid a default risk that would be very dangerous for the euro zone as a whole."

On the other hand if financial markets are not convinced that countries facing problems will be bailed out there will be a rise in risk premiums or worse.

National governments are doing all they can to keep the financial vultures at bay.

Spain and Portugal are particularly keen not to be tarred with the same brush as Greece, which has debts over 294 billion euros ($412 billion) and a deficit that amounts to 12.7 percent of gross domestic product, far beyond EU limits of 3 percent.

But the investors are jittery.

The Ibex-35 index of most traded Spanish stocks closed down 1.35 percent on Friday after plunging nearly six percent on Thursday amid growing concerns over the state of the economy.

Blaming the markets:

Investors have no "objective" reason to worry about the state of Spanish public finances, Spain's secretary of state for the economy Jose Manuel Campa said.

"Markets take decisions by evaluating perceived risk, which from a subjective point of view, are high. But from an objective point of view, there is no reason for this at the moment," he told Agence France-Presse.

Portuguese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos insisted that his country had "nothing to do with Greece" and lashed out at investors targeting his country as "prey".

"Investors have an animal spirit," he said. "There is something irrational in the way they behave."

Eurozone officials have also rushed to reinforce the assurances about the countries of southern Europe which are in the fiscal spotlight.

Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, stressed that Spain and Portugal pose no risk to eurozone stability.

The European Union last week approved Greek efforts to tame its debt crisis but placed Athens under unprecedented economic scrutiny.

European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet did his best to support Athens but could only manage to say that the Greek government plans to reduce the country's growing deficit and debt "are steps in the right direction".

Athens most recently promised measures including a public salary freeze, an increase in petrol taxes and a hike in the retirement age.

However the moves have upset labor unions more than they have assuaged market sentiment.

Greek shares closed down 3.73 percent on Friday. Meanwhile, Greek credit default swaps - bought to cover losses in case of default on debt repayments - rose 19.5 basis points to 446.5.

Tough ride out of the storm:

And while there seems very little possibility that Greece will be forced out of the euro, a move acceptable neither politically or economically, the underlining question persists: Can the monetary union ride out the storm?

Economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland warn that the situation is such that mere words are not enough.

That leaves Greece's European partners under pressure to come up with some kind of financial aid mechanism for Athens, perhaps via bilateral loans, a solution which would be politically less humiliating than a eurozone country going cap in hand to the International Monetary Fund.

IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn said the other eurozone nations must help Greece "in some form or another".

The Greek government agreed, suggesting some kind of euro-bonds issue and common loans from several nations to spread the risk.

Those calls will be heard by EU heads of state and government when they meet in Brussels for a special summit in Brussels on Thursday.

The European leaders will also be mulling their own recovery efforts as the bloc faces years of cuts in public spending to reduce the growing deficits which the 2008 economic crash highlighted and heightened.

They will be wondering how much "contagion" they will suffer from Greece.

"A lot depends on how the Greek crisis will be solved," said Italian-based Unicredit researchers.

"The more the solution will look like a bail out, the less likely will be the contagion scenario.

"The more Greece will be asked to walk out of the crisis on its own legs, the more investors will turn to other European Monetary Union countries and ask who might be able to weather a crisis almost only on its own."


 

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READER COMMENTS

Guest - hunni
2010-02-14 14:53:38
  Dinos there you go again defending BANKRUPT greece and try to turn the spotlight on another matter. The facts are greece lied to get into the Euro zone, they lied when thwey were in it and now they can not cover up their lies any more they are bankrupt! I bet the tax payers in the euro zone and EU are very unhappy that they have to bail out greece with their hard earnt money so 7 million greeks could have a good time at the expence of the rest of europe.
 

Guest - Dinos Plassaras
2010-02-07 15:39:07
  Sorry for the typo. I meant "worse conditions than originally existed". In any event I hope you agree with me that deficits are the symptoms and not the causes of financial instability, which deficits in due time can actually become the causes of even more financial instability.
 

Guest - Dinos Plassaras
2010-02-07 15:32:30
  In my humble opinion the alarm ought to be about global public debts. Because it is the existence of ever growing debts that lead to deficits which then lead to more debts. In a separate article today HDN reported that the G7 agreed to continue stimulae programs to keep "the recovery going". A stimulus program is nothing more than a euphemism for more public borrowing in an effort to stimulate growth which may or may not materialize. More stimulae means more debts, more debts equal more deficits in a never ending vicious cycle.Numerous studies have shown that for every euro of stimulus spent there is less than a euro of real economic growth that occurs. Stimulae programs, studies have shown, are no more than a temporary sugar high and when it passes it leaves behind worst conditions than originally existed.
 

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