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MEHMET ALİ BİRAND > Getting ready for a possible regional war

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Today, I would like to highlight the impending dangers in the Middle East and “toll the alarm bells.”

We have had so many inner fights and wasted so much time in the vicious corridors of interior policies that we cannot see the things around us. However, the condition is really critical.

Everyone is in fear except us. We, on the other hand, pay no attention. However, we have to show concern and be alert.

The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) must get ready. The economy must get ready.

We are in the middle of such a hot spot that escaping it will not be easy. Over the next 10-15 years, we will experience huge crises and one or several wars. We don’t have any other solutions than making plans to protect ourselves from such a hot spot.

Turkey is not the region’s game-setter. However, it is in an influential position and its words are listened to. The most essential step in strengthening this position is to reinforce the TSK. I will mention why and how the TSK should be supported in another article. In brief, the modernization of our army is a necessity that is gradually becoming urgent.

We are lucky to live in Turkey

Please do not draw different conclusions from this title.

I would like to mention the possible wars in our region and show how dangerous the geography we are living in is. When you look at the picture I draw below, you will find me right. Set aside opposing the ruling Justice and Development Party or being anxious about Erdoğan’s rule, after you look at the view around you, decide on whether you prefer to live in Turkey.

SYRIA: This neighbor is dynamite that will explode sooner or later. It is not yet known how it will explode and how violent the civil war will be. More blood is being shed each passing day. This country will probably be divided along ethnic lines, which would especially bring great harm to us.

IRAQ: Another neighbor country who will probably be divided. Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis will protect their own regions. In such a case, Northern Iraq will declare its independence. A possible war that is expected to erupt between Baghdad and Arbil will also harm Turkey.

IRAN: If a solution cannot be offered on the matter of their nuclear program, the country that has the greatest risk of getting into a war will be Iran. The ongoing nuclear program will result in an Israeli bombing either alone or with the U.S. In such a case, the region will enter into a great conflict. The Arab countries will also get involved in this conflict. Complete chaos is expected.

EGYPT: The future of Egypt, which cannot get rid of upheavals since the introduction of democracy, is worrying everyone. The conflict between secular and conservative people is taking a dangerous shape in the country. Particularly the controversial draft Constitution, insistently proposed by Morsi and forcibly accepted by the public, will increase the inner conflicts in the last term of the year. The chaos in Egypt will also negatively influence Palestine.

PALESTINE: Due to both the potential inner conflict (Hamas vs. El Fetih) and the intensive pressure imposed by Israel, Palestine would get involved in a possible war in Iran or Syria. This possibility means that the whole region would be drenched in blood.

The Middle East is currently regarded as the most dangerous region of the world. And when its billions of barrels of oil and great natural gas reserves are considered, it turns into a field of competition not only for local but also for international powers.

Turkey is the only country who remains steady in the middle of this hot spot.

Its greatest misfortune is being the neighbor of such explosive dynamite.

So, we should be content and modernize the TSK. If we postpone it, it will be too late.

January/02/2013

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ilker avni

1/2/2013 9:36:45 PM

@ Shah hamdan The Kurds should have they own state and at one time Iraq was kurdistan and will be again with American and Turkeys help,North of Iraq will be a kurdish state seperate from Shiite Iraq.The Old Ottoman lands that were once given away,should be taken back,this include Syria and iraq.This is the AKP partys agenda,thats why they are talking to ocalan and the pkk,to counter Iranian influeance over the Kurds.Turkey has excepted American idea of a Kurdish state in Northern Iraq.

ilker avni

1/2/2013 9:27:37 PM

@ Turk Uzan I agree with you Turkey should go for hi tech transfers,Iran has ten years advantage over Turkey,with the North Koreans help Iran has the science and the know how to manufacture they own weapon systems,they produce they own cruise missiles.Iran is not Iraq,Iranian technology has come a long way.Turkey has to BUY and is dependant on Nato for its defences thats why Iran will never attack Turkey not first strike anyway thats like committing sucide.

Kevin Snapp

1/2/2013 9:27:09 PM

Agnes Smith, as long as we're dreaming, why not make MAB Prime Minister? And I agree that "peace at home, peace in the world" should be Turkey's priorities, in that order.

Agnes Smith

1/2/2013 1:53:58 PM

So let’s sack the FM and put you in charge. He has got this country into enough difficulties. It’s time for him to go. The TSK was a functioning mechanism before being made to feel responsible that all that had gone wrong in the country was their fault. Ironically we may be looking back on the last 10 years of being the biggest mistake. Peace with our Turkish Kurdish population has to be the highest on the agenda. Peace at home and then deal with the rest as it comes

The Prisoner

1/2/2013 12:40:53 PM

@rich bind, spot on sir! Turkiye will only have itself to blame for being dragged into the impending mess due to it's domestic persecution of 'non-believers' (anyone who disagrees with them) and their meddling in other countries' internal affairs.

Stanko Barac

1/2/2013 12:16:54 PM

Everyday a Turkish soldier is killed by PKK. PKK is on the rise boosted by events in Iraq and Syria . Remote military bases in Kurdish areas are no longer supplied by trucks - too dangerous, so helicopters are used for supply. Is it a sign of stability ? Maybe only for someone who thinks that Turkey is Istanbul .

Shah Hamdan

1/2/2013 10:37:59 AM

Its nice to be optimistic but when Iraq will be divided and Kurds will get Kurdistan then large part of that will come from Turkey. Turkey is not immune from great danger of Balkanization. Unfortunately it will be first to go under knife.

rich bind

1/2/2013 7:18:45 AM

Sorry, but the bold declaration that "Turkey is the only country who remains steady in the middle of this hot spot (ie. the Mideast)," could not be further from reality. Turkey has gone out of its way to meddle in the Syrian crisis, the Iranian standoff, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Iraqi-Kurd dispute. Not to mention that it is fighting its own home grown PKK war inside Syria & Iraq. If that is not enough it is threatening the Republic of Cyprus over gas fields it has no claim to.

ilker avni

1/2/2013 4:50:27 AM

Iran has spend much of it oil and gas revenue on its military preparing for a war with the west,with help from North Korean and Chinese experts they have the most upto date missile technology,they proved allso they cyber capablities when they took over the most adavanced Drone of the USA and landed the thing on Iranian soil. They build they own weapons systems unlike Turkey who has to buy.The problem with Turkey is,everything takes time they slow.Turkey is no match for Iran on her own.

ilker avni

1/2/2013 4:02:56 AM

I agree with your article Mehmet,Iran has spent decades after the Iraq war preparing for such a war but with the West in mind,the civil war in Syria and the continueing strif in Iraq takes attention away from Iran, and makes Iran stronger,Iran welcomes a attack by the West as they see this as uniteing the Shiite world against the Sunnie and they allies the West.Iran controlls the Worlds economy and can shut it down when ever they want.Iran will never attack Turkey a Nato member but will provoke.
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