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MEHMET ALİ BİRAND > Getting ready for a possible regional war

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Today, I would like to highlight the impending dangers in the Middle East and “toll the alarm bells.”

We have had so many inner fights and wasted so much time in the vicious corridors of interior policies that we cannot see the things around us. However, the condition is really critical.

Everyone is in fear except us. We, on the other hand, pay no attention. However, we have to show concern and be alert.

The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) must get ready. The economy must get ready.

We are in the middle of such a hot spot that escaping it will not be easy. Over the next 10-15 years, we will experience huge crises and one or several wars. We don’t have any other solutions than making plans to protect ourselves from such a hot spot.

Turkey is not the region’s game-setter. However, it is in an influential position and its words are listened to. The most essential step in strengthening this position is to reinforce the TSK. I will mention why and how the TSK should be supported in another article. In brief, the modernization of our army is a necessity that is gradually becoming urgent.

We are lucky to live in Turkey

Please do not draw different conclusions from this title.

I would like to mention the possible wars in our region and show how dangerous the geography we are living in is. When you look at the picture I draw below, you will find me right. Set aside opposing the ruling Justice and Development Party or being anxious about Erdoğan’s rule, after you look at the view around you, decide on whether you prefer to live in Turkey.

SYRIA: This neighbor is dynamite that will explode sooner or later. It is not yet known how it will explode and how violent the civil war will be. More blood is being shed each passing day. This country will probably be divided along ethnic lines, which would especially bring great harm to us.

IRAQ: Another neighbor country who will probably be divided. Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis will protect their own regions. In such a case, Northern Iraq will declare its independence. A possible war that is expected to erupt between Baghdad and Arbil will also harm Turkey.

IRAN: If a solution cannot be offered on the matter of their nuclear program, the country that has the greatest risk of getting into a war will be Iran. The ongoing nuclear program will result in an Israeli bombing either alone or with the U.S. In such a case, the region will enter into a great conflict. The Arab countries will also get involved in this conflict. Complete chaos is expected.

EGYPT: The future of Egypt, which cannot get rid of upheavals since the introduction of democracy, is worrying everyone. The conflict between secular and conservative people is taking a dangerous shape in the country. Particularly the controversial draft Constitution, insistently proposed by Morsi and forcibly accepted by the public, will increase the inner conflicts in the last term of the year. The chaos in Egypt will also negatively influence Palestine.

PALESTINE: Due to both the potential inner conflict (Hamas vs. El Fetih) and the intensive pressure imposed by Israel, Palestine would get involved in a possible war in Iran or Syria. This possibility means that the whole region would be drenched in blood.

The Middle East is currently regarded as the most dangerous region of the world. And when its billions of barrels of oil and great natural gas reserves are considered, it turns into a field of competition not only for local but also for international powers.

Turkey is the only country who remains steady in the middle of this hot spot.

Its greatest misfortune is being the neighbor of such explosive dynamite.

So, we should be content and modernize the TSK. If we postpone it, it will be too late.

January/02/2013

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