Ukraine left out in cold by US shutdown deal

WASHINGTON

The future of U.S. aid for Ukraine hangs in the balance after a last-gasp deal to avoid a government shutdown, despite President Joe Biden's attempts to reassure Kiev it will get what it needs to fight Russia.

Barely a week after President Volodymyr Zelensky was in Washington appealing for more funds, the compromise struck in Congress late on Sept. 30 dropped new funding for Ukraine amid opposition from hardline Republicans.

Biden and his Democratic party say America has a duty to help Ukraine stand up to Russian President Vladimir Putin's brutal invasion, warning that a failure to do so could embolden other autocrats in the future.

But the issue has become so politicized in Washington that the fate of vital military aid is now in jeopardy, just as Kiev tries to make progress in its sluggish counteroffensive before winter sets in.

Biden urged Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Oct. 1 to "stop the games" and said he "fully expects" him to secure passage of a separate bill for Ukraine funding soon.

"I want to assure our American allies, the American people and the people in Ukraine that you can count on our support. We will not walk away," Biden said in an address from the White House.

Ukraine played down the blow, saying on Oct. 1 it was "actively working with its American partners" to ensure new wartime aid.

Yet the wider signal to the world - that not only Republicans but also some Democrats were willing to sacrifice Ukraine for politics - is damaging, said analyst Brett Bruen.

"That ought to worry leaders in Kiev, and I think in Moscow they're celebrating the signs that our support may be waning," Bruen, president of the Global Situation Room consultancy and a former U,S. diplomat, told AFP.

Ukraine is already nervously eyeing the possibility of a return to the White House by Republican former president Donald Trump, who has previously praised Putin.

Top House Democrats said on Oct. 1 that they expect McCarthy to bring a separate Ukraine aid bill for a vote this week, though it was unclear if it would be the $24 billion Biden originally sought.

But that could be more easily said than done.

Ukraine's fight for survival has become a political football just over a year from the U.S. presidential election, with questions mounting over aid approved by Congress that totals $100 billion so far, including $43 billion in weaponry.

First, there is a bid to unseat McCarthy this week by hardline Republican Matt Gaetz, one of a core of hard-right members of the party implacably opposed to any more aid for Ukraine.

If he does survive, McCarthy made it clear that he would hold out for funding to stop immigrants crossing the Mexican border, a key Republican demand.

Even if McCarthy does agree on the Ukraine aid, possibly in a deal with Democrats to allow him to stay as speaker, there is a wider problem - war fatigue.

Skepticism is spreading from the hardline Republicans to more moderate lawmakers who say they won't write Ukraine a "blank check."

More worryingly for Biden and Kiev, inflation-hit American voters appear to have similar concerns about Ukraine.

An ABC/Washington Post poll released September 24 showed 41 percent of respondents saying the United States was doing too much to support Ukraine, up from 33 percent in February and just 14 percent in April 2022.